Category: Probability
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Significant Paradoxes: Decision Theory and Game Theory
52 Prisoner’s Dilemma Two accomplices are interrogated separately. Each may Co-operate (stay silent) or Defect (betray). Mutual co-operation yields 2 years each; mutual defection 5 years each; unilateral betrayal frees the defector and jails the co-operator for 10 years. Because defection strictly dominates, rational agents defect, landing at 5 + 5 instead of 2 +…
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Significant Paradoxes: Epistemology and Probability
38 Hempel’s Raven Scientific hypotheses are usually universal claims—for example, “All ravens are black.” By standard logic that statement is equivalent to its contrapositive “All non-black things are non-ravens.” Hempel pointed out a tension between that equivalence and ordinary confirmation. A sighting of a black raven clearly supports the hypothesis, yet the contrapositive implies that…